Sight of a dragon dance. Photo credit: Freepik
Understanding China's Shifting Approach in Establishing Regional Dominance
The ascent of China on the global stage has been nothing short of remarkable, resembling the calculated moves of a Komodo dragon seeking its prey. In a departure from former leader Deng Xiaoping's counsel to "hide your strength, bide your time," China is now shedding its cautious approach and embracing a more assertive stance in its quest for dominance.
Unveiling the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): A Grand Design
China's flagship endeavor, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a multifaceted strategy aimed at consolidating its grip on both international and domestic markets. This comprehensive initiative encompasses diverse sectors, including infrastructure, education, construction, transportation, and energy. The ambition is to create a network that spans over 60 countries, connecting Asia, Europe, Oceania, and East Africa through extensive infrastructure networks by land and sea.
While the vision is compelling, the investment required is monumental. The estimated cost for the intricate infrastructure networks alone ranges from a staggering US$4–8 trillion. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, linking Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan, comes with a price tag of $46 billion. This massive undertaking seeks to intertwine economies and reshape regional dynamics.
Navigating the Risk Landscape: China's Calculated Gamble
Like any grand investment, the BRI comes with inherent risks. The ability to manage security challenges in host countries is a critical consideration. China's capacity to handle threats and maintain stability is under scrutiny, especially when compared to the U.S.'s track record in safeguarding its interests abroad. This calls for a careful evaluation of China's approach by its allies, who are investing their faith and financial resources via institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
While projecting an image of friendship, China recognizes the need to bolster its military capabilities. As it expands its global influence, China's strategy involves enhancing its military presence. Military bases are reportedly being established, even in countries like Cambodia, where such actions might contravene constitutional norms. China's strategic facilities in the South China Sea further contribute to the projection of its power. The cultivation of naval military forces in countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vanuatu underscores China's expansive ambitions.
The Motivation Beneath the Surface: Profits and Global Influence
Behind China's diplomatic maneuvers lies a common motivation shared by many nations: economic gain. China's pursuit of profits mirrors the U.S.'s actions, where power dynamics are often masked by the rhetoric of peace and democracy. In the realm of global influence, China's rise challenges the U.S.'s supremacy, leading to a showdown between two formidable contenders. Both nations are driven by wealth, sophistication, and astute decision-making.
China's resilience is evident in its ability to navigate challenges such as tariff wars initiated by the U.S. By strategically exporting goods from less affected countries, China manages to minimize the impact of tariffs. In this high-stakes competition, both nations strive to secure their positions while adapting to an ever-changing global landscape.
The Dilemma of Spectators: Navigating Uncertain Alliances
Amidst the geopolitical rivalry, many observers find themselves in a precarious position, hesitant to take sides in the escalating contest for dominance. The Philippines, for instance, walks a tightrope, displaying signs of affinity towards China while cautiously guarding against overreliance.
Maintaining alliances shares parallels with the world of trade, akin to the rice trader's art. Just as farmers choose the trader over the National Food Authority due to debts, sovereign states must weigh the advantages of allegiance in a complex international scenario.
China's Ambitions and the Role of Friendship
China's aspirations for imperial supremacy hinge on its ability to nurture and sustain alliances. The BRI's success lies not only in economic gains but also in the cultivation of long-term relationships. China's charm offensive resonates, but its lasting impact depends on its ability to influence political and military leaders who share its vision. Notable successes in this realm include Cambodia and the Philippines.
For those who seek to halt China's rise, lessons can be drawn from the fluid dynamics of international relationships. The realization of the BRI, coupled with the establishment of military bases abroad, hinges on the alignment of neighboring states with China's interests. The key to countering China's ascent is engaging in a discourse that unlocks voters' understanding and encourages them to question the dragon's grip.
Undoubtedly, this endeavor poses challenges, especially in a world fueled by social media and data manipulation. However, even the best-laid strategies can falter in the face of compelling issues, as evidenced by the Hong Kong protests. Leaders not tethered to external influence are likely to pursue paths that resonate with their constituencies, shaping a future that transcends allegiance to China or the United States.
In the arena of global power dynamics, the stakes are high, and the outcome remains uncertain. As China's dragon sets its sights on supremacy, nations must navigate an intricate landscape, where strategic choices have far-reaching consequences.
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This rewrite was first published on 18 August 2019 with the title "Stopping the Dragon".
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